I am going to start this blog with a question, the question is a relatively straightforward one I asked last night to both Melanie Phillips and Jonathan Freedland. The quesstion was as follows 'Do you think due to the credit crunch America could be in the same position as Britain was in 1946'. Melanie in a somewhat disastrous attempt completely missed the point of the question (you could say that she had lost the plot she did after all call me an American!) could America not be able to help Israel had all? After the debate I briefly spoke to Jonathan who had actually immediately realised what the point is the question really was.

The debate was being run by the Jewish community centre for London it was a particularly live debate full of people from various backgrounds and stages in their lives. Most of the questions were aimed at asking not who would make the best President for Jewish people in general or Jewish people living in America but who was most likely to build peace between Jews and Arabs in the Middle East. As I sat there I immediately realised something which I now believe most of the people in the room have not realised. American after presidential elections may very well want to help Israel but it may no longer be in a position to actually bring about change.

After the Chinese Olympics which most of us have seen on TV and its build up of the rapid growth of both India and China and the resurgence of Russia could a faltering America be on the brink of losing its superpower status? From what I've read and heard I believe that could very well be the case the problem is this the American state is effectively trying to save it own banking system. Every day we hear on the BBC another crisis and what we heard from both Brown and Cameron is that America is the centre of the banking world. Only today in the Guardian I read how America had lost the ability to choose the head of the IMF. The only comparison is I can think of is Britain in Suez or the Berlin Wall for the Soviet Union. I believe the end of the American global co-operative which has founded the United Nations, The World Bank and the IMF which have all been extremely important organisations was the day that Northern Rock went under.

You could ask why the American bail out of $700 billion that was reluctantly voted by Congress could be the end of the road for America in the middle East or why they have actually today nationalised their own banks. I believe these are examples of a severe shift in American policy we are going to see more partly government owned companies in the Chinese style from now on.

The reason I think it's the end of America's involvement in the middle East is that not only has it had a total disaster in Iraq when they found no weapons of mass destruction but there's also a step change going on. Most of the G7 countries in recent months have come cab in hand to China to prop up their faltering banking industries. Eventually I believe China like with Britain after the Second World War will only give money to these states if they act within its national interest. My instinct is that China will probably want America to be less active in the middle East as if America does not agree like with the late British Empire they may very well say that they wish to cut funding them.

Then there's factors which are not linked to America at all but a link to prosperous Gulf Arab nations...

If you look at Dubai, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait you see rich prosperous countries. All these countries have one thing in common with Norway they all have sovereign funds. In my opinion eventually as America rebuilds they will own a large amount of American industry and commerce.

Then there is Iran is true that Iran is next door and I personally believe Iran is attempting to develop nuclear weapons. However unlike Melanie I do believe that it will even if it did unfortunately develop nuclear weapons launched an attack on Israel. The reason as far as I am concerned is obvious Israel itself has nuclear weapons if Iran launched even a major non-nuclear attack some commentators believe Israel could even launch a first strike. I however believe that there won't be any direct conflict between the two countries it's more likely the Israel/Iran conflict will follow the same path in my opinion as the US-USSR cold war of the last century. But I think that there is a much more serious danger to Israel than the Iranians...

If the American economy was to collapse like it almost did a few weeks ago in the short to medium term America would probably cut off its aid not just to Israel but other governments in the region. In my opinion the most important government which sits next to Israel in the middle East is Egypt. I won't bore you with figures but from what I've read both Egypt and Israel received huge amounts of aid from America. If the American bubble had actually burst the first concern has to be if the government America supported with American aid could survive. I'm not suggesting for a moment that Israel is going to be in danger of being overrun or collaping if America collapsed what I think is more likely is a domino effect with a few states like including Jordan goverment carrying on as other goverments fail. In Egypt the opposition party is the Islamic brotherhood there is a fairly good chance if the national democratic party was forced into having free elections the Islamic brotherhood would be Egypt's next government. At this stage even with American support the government in Egypt is clearly getting weaker you only need to read the BBC website to know this. My nightmare is that there is a collapse which is sudden and unexpected in Cairo of their government resulting in either a civil war or in a pro-Iranian government.

You only need to read the crisis group report which was published almost 2 years ago now ' Egypt's Sinai a question' to know the opinion of most people in the field. It is generally agreed that Egypt is losing control of the Sinai peninsula even if the new regime was pro-Israeli the result could still be Israeli troops would be sent into the Sinai. The idea that the Israelis could build a fence stopping Islamic extremists going into the southern Israel is unrealistic for another 14 years unless the fence was solid. I have a close friend who went to University with me in Manchester University he used to work for the MoD and he's told me it would take at least 10 years for electronic fences to be efficient enough to be used on the American Mexican border. So the real nightmare in my opinion is not will America vote for Obama or McCain but can it avoid a complete collapse...

My long-term opinion is that Israel needs to stop relying on America and other superpowers or great powers and become far more independent minded. Sitting in that room I felt like I was watching a group of British-born Australians in the 1960-70s discussing if the home countrie's prime minister would have an effect on their country's future (I had in mind the period between 1945 to 1974 when Australia was often called the Commonwealth's California). The whole idea of Israel is that it would be an independent homeland it does seem that independent me if we have to rely on America? At the same time other countries (which happened to be Arab states) in the same region as Israel are rapidly buying land outside the middle East in both Pakistan and Africa.

There is a reason for this not only is the price of oil going up at the same time climate change is making farming in the middle East much harder. Maybe it would be a good idea for middle sized Jewish communities in partnership with Israel should start land banking in stable foreign countries with medium-sized Jewish communities (probably in Australia, South Africa and South America) where there was good grade agricultural land with th JNF investing the money in new international divisions. They had this discussion 3 and half years ago the conclusion was the best sites when Argentina, South Africa and Australia. Such a project would be similar to what Saudi Arabia and Dubai have done a number of other countries in Africa the areas of land involved would have been vast but again they could have been used to help the local communities and they could have had duel purposes. In addition Israeli farming methods could be exported to these states and in the case of a few of these countries like Argentina which still has a large Jewish farming community they could be used to reinvigorate these communities.

Even if Israel can stay completely self-sufficient in food roughly half the Jewish people living globally still don't live within its borders. Most of us live in stable democratic states and we don't need to worry about their own safety the problem is this however in the long term we've got no idea what changes are going to happen in the world today. Political extremism like for example Fascism and Communism usually become more powerful during economic downturns what is to say there won't be a disaster that put strains on both Israel and the global Jewish community. The land banks would act both as long-term investments which could be sold if they were no longer needed and as important resources when there was instability in the world or even in a worst-case scenario (and I'm being extremely pessimistic) as safe havens in their own right.

In my opinion it won't just be Jewish society there will be thinking about food, water and energy security but as we have seen recently the world will be considering it. The problem is the Jewish world has not been building the infrastructure that I believe may very well be necessary to safeguard its own future.

This issue nicely links to what I believe is the major issue it is that not all Jewish people believed that Israel was the begin all and end all of being Jewish. Many of the people who came to the same meeting as myself found themselves asking questions and have it to say but can we talk about other things apart from Israel. Most of these people were maybe two or three years younger than me yet their opinions were close to the ones I had. Questions like about American supreme judges or about individual freedoms.

As they asked the question many of the people in the crowd were covering their eyes I for one was smiling. As far as I am concerned Isreal will remain a key part of Jewish life globally but if the founding fathers of Israel believed that it would be the only part they were much mistaken.

By the end of the debate most the people were like at the start of the debate willing to vote for the Democratic candidate and the minority were willing to vote for the Republican what can I say it was an exercise in the older generation showing how pro-Zionist it was whilst the younger generation looked on hoping for change...

Both Melanie and Jonathan were great speakers the problem was essentially we were discussing an issue which effectively will only affect people in mainland America not in the middle East...

On this I hope I am wrong

Then as I got home I started thinking about Europe you may ask why? The last 17 years since the USSR we have when American could of changed the world (including enforcing the two state solution in Israel between the Israelis and the Palestinians). But it failed today what worries me immediately is the effects on Europe the recent credit crunch as well as Russia's actions in Georgia has exposed the weakness of the union.

What is so startling however is none of these happenings but the fact the European leaders have not replaced the coal and steel union which helped set up these key European institutions in the face of Russia's growing power. The result is Germany believes the coal is the future, France believes that nuclear power is the future. If you take into account EON Frances nuclear power provider took over British Nuclear then it seems fairly certain that we will go the same way.

Europe seems far more divided than it did three years ago European states have lived through a time where they believed the rules the jungle of international politics no longer apply to them. The George crisis has proved that this is not true and furthermore the results of this crisis seemed to me to be more serious to the immediate future them both to credit crisis and climate change.

Russia's gaining power would not matter if the European Union was totally united. But the fact is the Europeans seem more hopelessly divided. The Germans want to build a pipeline missing out Poland whilst Britain wants to help isolate Russia. To me it suggests that storm clouds are now brewing.

Melanie and Jonathan it is interesting to talk about who will next run America the problem here is I believe that within three or four years we will realise discussing about America is a bit like Australians discussing about Britain in 1973 before we joined the EU or saying in 1946-48 that Britain should stay in Isreal they may want to stay but they won't be able too.

It may be an interesting subject to talk about but unfortunately the superpower we are discussing is well past its heyday both China, Russia and India seem like the states that will eventually take over from America the key now for all countries in both continental Europe and in the Mediterranean basin is to adapt to the radical changes. The future is in our hands it is not in some far away powers hands there would be the message I would give the Israelis...

...and if I had to chose a side in the datebate I would be with Jonathan, Melanie may be right about some of the problems in the middle but in many ways we now have two states already we just need the settlers to leave! There was also something that troubled me about Melanie style when I was at the Weitzman I remember one night talking to a group of five Russian born Israelis. These were particularly intelligent people after all the Weitzman Institute is Israel's equivalent of Oxford and Cambridge. They gave me much the same message but in a chilling twist they suggested just over three years ago but they eventually force saw an extremely bloody civil war which would result in the Palestinians being forced out of Israel. I totally agree with Jonathan and I consider there to be an extremely high risk that if the current situation was to carry on the result would be much bloodshed on both sides. I just don't believe that the Americans have the ability even now and I'm certain that in the medium to long term they will not have the ability to bring peace to this troubled part of the world.

At the same time I was shocked by the lack of infrastructure that many communities have outside of Israel even in Britain if you look at Jewish care it seems to lack the rigth number of places for old peoples homes. I believe this is an example of what makes us a lot more weaker than other ethnic minorities globally in our host countries (apart from America where we've taken advantage of everthing and shown a lot more ambition).

Even if you don't agree with this blog entry and I have to admit in the last three days have amended it and number of times you have to agree that the two state solution has to be the final conclusion the only realistic alternative would be one group forcing the other out of the country which I believe would be totally and utterly unacceptable. At the same time the as we still call ourselves 'the diaspora' a term I believe we should drop in the modern age. I believe we should replace the word disaspora with the word Goble which I believe would make a lot more commonsense.

I'm well aware that there's a whole array of organisations that at the time of writing do help Jewish communities worldwide but I believe they now need to be strengthened and I also believe that needs to be moved was better infrastructure which would include better education, better housing associations and overall more efficient organisations. Mostly the issues that people in the diaspora will want taken seriously issues that most of the general public would also want taken seriously and I believe on that count our leaders are really failing us. I believe that this point it's best to leave you with one thought. I have a number of friends who have decided to move to Israel over the last few years. They've all done it the same reason they believe the country is their home. I believe that the generation of people born for five years before me is far less Zionist than my generation. More of us want to live in our home countries and their view on the world is more like Israelis who have left Israel. I have noticed as I talk to more of my friends especially the younger ones there now seems to be a growing annoyance during the debate on Sunday nigth I could not help but notice that most people wanted to talk about the issues that would affect American Jews not Israeli Jews. It is obvious to me that Jewish organisations now need to move away from constantly debating about Israel to debating about the communities they serve. We all agree Israel will be a key part of our future globally and I believe that even those who were a little in the way during the debate are pro Israel but there seems to be a gaping hole in what these communities want and what they had been given.

And that it is among other things our most immediate challenge as communities.